2030 Energy Trends

Energy and the economy

• Global energy consumption growth continues, driven by industrialisation in the developing world – but efficiency improvements are likely to accelerate.
• World primary energy use is projected to grow by an annual average of 1.7% (or a total of 40%) in 2010-30, not much lower than during the previous two decades (1.9% p.a. or 45%).
• 93% of global growth is accounted for by non-OECD economies; their share of global consumption is likely to reach two-thirds by 2030, from about half today and 43% in 1990.
• Energy efficiency, broadly defined as the ratio of energy to GDP, is set to accelerate, facilitating faster income growth over the next 20 years. Efficiency improves faster in the non-OECD economies.
• Energy consumption growth is driven by power generation and industry in the developing world. Transport growth slows because of a decline in the OECD.

2030 Oil Supply Demand

Global fuel mix

• The global fuel mix continues to diversify – and for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth.
• The contribution of fossil fuels to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% (1990-2010) to 64% (2010-2030).
• The contribution of renewables to energy growth increases from 5% (1990-2010) to 18% (2010-2030).
• The contribution of all non-fossil fuels combined (including nuclear and hydroelectricity) is larger than any fossil fuel for the first time.
• Coal and oil are losing market share, as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates; gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel.

                                         

2030 Fuel Mix

                                                         Emerging energy patterns

• Energy policy is driven by security as well as by climate change concerns – with diverse outcomes across fuels and regions.
• OECD oil demand has peaked in 2005 and by 2030 will roughly be back at the level of 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
• OPEC’s share in global oil production is set to increase to 46% by 2030, a share not seen since 1977. China will be the world’s largest oil consumer.
• Unconventional gas (shale and CBM) may contribute nearly 40% to global gas growth; LNG trade is set to grow twice as fast as gas production; the US may choose to become a LNG exporter.
• The share of natural gas in China’s energy mix will rise from 4% today to 9% in 2030; coal demand in China will no longer be rising.Oil and gas import dependency in the US will fall to levels not seen since the 1980s.