Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Biofuel and natural gas future at 2030

Biofuels meet an increasing share of demand growth driven by supply expansion

Biofuels production (largely ethanol) is expected to exceed 6.5 Mb/d by 2030, up from 1.8 Mb/d in 2010 – contributing 30% of global supply growth over the next 20 years, and all of the net growth in non-OPEC.
Continued policy support, high oil prices in recent years, and technological innovations all contribute to the rapid expansion.The US and Brazil will continue to dominate production; together they account for 68% of total output in 2030 (from 76% in 2010). First- generation biofuels are expected to account for most of the growth.After 2020, roughly 40% of global liquids demand growth will be met by biofuels – up from 13% in 2010 – with the US and Europe leading consumption growth. By 2030, this figure approaches 60%.

Biofuel Supply Demand

Gas production and consumption growth moderates while shifting to emerging markets

Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel globally to 2030, but slows relative to historic patterns as the market base expands and demand-side efficiency measures gain hold.Production grows in every region except Europe, where decline rates at mature fields are likely to reverse the gains since 1975.
Asia accounts for the world’s largest production and consumption increments. China drives 56% of the region’s consumption growth.The Middle East has the world’s second largest production and consumption increments. The region’s share in global consumption is expected to expand from 5% in 1990 and 12% in 2010 to 17% in 2030. Its share in global production grows from 15% in 2010 to 19%.Despite North America’s continued production growth, it is outpaced by other regions and its share in the global total declines from 26% in 2010 to 19% in 2030.FSU and African production grows strongly to meet export demand.

Gas Production Consumption

Gas displaces coal in OECD power generation encouraged by environmental policy

Base case assumes policy efforts to curb emissions via carbon prices, mandates and low carbon technologies. The precise policy details will determine the fuel mix – particularly the role of gas.Natural gas used to generate power has half the CO2 emissions of conventional coal power generation and near zero sulphur emissions. Gas is expected to displace coal in power generation across the OECD due to rising carbon prices, permitting constraints for new plants and mandates.Coal displacement is likely to be strongest in Europe, where regulation is most advanced. The gas share in fossil fuel generation grows from 42% in 2010 to 65% in 2030. Yet the growth in renewables means that the gas share in total generation increases modestly from 20% to 24%.In N. America, gas’s share in fossil fuel generation reaches 41% in 2030.Globally, gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in power generation and grows its share in generation from fossil fuels from 30% today to 37%. Its share in total electricity generation increases from 20.5% to 22%.

Power Generation Ratios